Nuclear Study

MAD Theory is fascinating. Random notes from class:

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) Theory
• Rationality
o Assumes states are rational; assumes states have preferences and will choose policies to gain/achieve those goals
• War avoidance
o Assumes states want to avoid nuclear war (because nuclear war would wipe out world)
o A specific case of conventional deterrence (conventional just threatens pain, reprisal, not the destruction of the world)
o “Strangelove” military nuc office – “Peace is our Profession”
• 2nd Strike capability
o Says states should build their nuclear arsenals
o Need weapons (can’t threaten them if you don’t have them)
o Have to have credibility (I may have a big stick, but will I ever use it?)
 Need to be willing to use the capability you have
 This is a weakness with MAD – we very rarely have the opportunity to show our willingness. With conventional deterrence, not so much an issue – we’ve seen more stuff.
o Promote deterrence through punishment
o MAD works fairly well in this bipolar world where only 2 states really have nuclear capabilities
o MAD promotes proliferation a bit…
o State with 2nd strike capability can absorb enough attacks and be able to refire
 Diversify – we have in land, sea, and air. Can’t keep all your weapons in one place
 Retaliate and inflict unacceptable damage on the opponent
o Measure size by saying that neither side could win a nuclear war
o “enough” power doesn’t take much for nucs…
o If you had only 1st strike capability, you might be tempted to use them based purely on the belief that the opponent could not retaliate and thus had no deterrent (fear that enemy will decide to bomb you, so you try to get lucky – this is question with Israel/Iran – MAD works best in Cold War world, where this theory was created)
• Countervalue v. counterforce targets
o MAD is based on killing everyone
o Counterforce targets are the weapons, nuclear sites, etc.
o Countervalue targets are cities, people
o You want to keep the idea that they could respond, but saying you’re going to bomb each other’s people – huge war!
o Aiming at counterforce makes them feel they have
• Offensive v. defensive weapons
o In MAD theory, offense is defense and defense is offense
o You don’t want to use your “offensive” weapons – nucs – so they become defensive
o Missile defense systems don’t go and attack anyone, they intercept incoming missiles. Under MAD logic, this becomes offensive – it encourages attack because it takes away strike capabilities